The current era is marked by profound
geopolitical and climatic changes that are
reshaping the future of the planet. On one
hand, emerging economies such as China,
India, Brazil, South Africa, and Nigeria are
growing at rapid rates, bringing significant
social and economic transformations. On
the other hand, climate change necessitates
stricter rules for environmental protection.
The global challenge is therefore to reconcile economic development with the need
to reduce environmental impact, without
imposing a halt to growth on countries still
afflicted by underdevelopment, preventing
them from improving the living conditions of
their citizens.
The European Union has positioned itself
as a leader in the ecological transition,
promoting ambitious policies to reduce CO2
emissions, encourage the use of renewable
energy, and redesign a sustainable economic model. However, this strategy faces a complex reality, marked by global crises such
as the COVID-19 pandemic, international
conflicts, and the rising influence of conservative and nationalist political movements,
as evidenced by Donald Trump's return to
the U.S. presidency. The EU's political choices now stand at a
crossroads. On one hand, energy dependence, dramatically exposed by the crisis
in relations with Russia, has revealed the
fragility of the European supply system. On
the other hand, the excessive outsourcing of
production to China, especially in key sectors such as automobiles and electronics,
has raised questions about the economic and
strategic sustainability of current industrial
policies.
Adding to this scenario is the increasing competition in Africa, where China and Russia
are expanding their economic and political
influence, while Western powers struggle to
develop effective strategies for cooperation
and development. The race for rare earth elements, essential for technological innovation
and the ecological transition, is generating
new international tensions, as is the competition in space, which represents the new strategic frontier for many global powers.
Meanwhile, European voters are shifting
their perspective. While environmental commitment was once considered an unquestionable value, today more citizens question
its compatibility with economic and social
realities. The cost of green policies, often
perceived as utopian, and the challenges of
maintaining economic prosperity in competition with emerging powers are leading to a
reassessment of priorities.
Is it time to view the construction of the
European Union with greater realism? Is
the EU truly a liberal-democratic political
project, or is it rather the realization of the ideal of Giuseppe Mazzini and later Altiero
Spinelli to build a republican and socialist
Europe? The European welfare model, based
on strong state intervention and pervasive
bureaucracy, is it compatible with global
competition, where countries with leaner
and less regulated economic models are
advancing rapidly?
Moreover, can Europe truly ensure its security and defense without depending on the
United States? The European model, which
prioritizes multilateralism and stringent
regulation of private enterprise, is it capable of keeping pace with the technological
innovation necessary to meet future challenges? Mario Draghi recently emphasized
that Europe must find a balance between
regulation and growth, avoiding excessive
constraints that stifle innovation.
This dichotomy is also reflected in the choice
between two symbolic models of development: Greta Thunberg or Elon Musk? On
one side, radical environmentalism that
demands drastic and immediate changes;
on the other, technological innovation and
private enterprise as the driving forces of
the ecological transition. A synthesis between
these two visions is necessary, avoiding
extremist approaches that could undermine
Europe's economic competitiveness.
Will the future truly be determined by mediation and geopolitical balances, in what
the British once called the Great Game,
or will it be shaped by those who innovate
without compromise? Europe and its cultural heritage—rationalist, empiricist, and Enlightenment-driven—remain central: it is
impossible to ignore these values, which have
established the rule of law over the brutal
law of force, the defense of individual rights
against religious fanaticism, and a capitalist economy that is not state-controlled but
maintains the crucial role of the individual.
Finally, what institutional model should
Europe adopt to address the challenges of the
present and the future? A federalist or confederate Europe? The EU must find a balance
between political integration and respect for
national sovereignty, avoiding becoming an
inefficient bureaucratic system or, conversely, a collection of states incapable of acting
with a common strategy.
The future of Europe and its environmental
policy will depend on its ability to combine
economic development, innovation, and sustainability in an increasingly complex and
competitive world. Will it be able to do so without falling behind the great global powers?