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Maria Assunta Accili, Ambassador.

Adriano Benedetti, Ambassador.

Anna Bincoletto, Collaborator.

Giuseppe Berutti Bergotto, Admiral.

Paolo Casardi, Ambassador.

Domenico Letizia. Journalist.

Eleonora Lorusso, Journalist.

Maurizio Melani, Ambassador.

Laura Mirachian, Ambassador.

Giuseppe Morabito, Minister Plenipotentiary.

Luca Mozzi, Sconfinare.

Roberto Nigido, Ambassador.

Carlo Maria Oliva, Ambassador.

Giorgio Radicati, Ambassador.

Stefano Ronca, Ambassador.

Romano Toppan, Accademic.

Luca Volpato, Italian Office Council of Europe.

Agata Lucchetta. Collaborator.

Maurizio Melani, Ambassador.

Laura Mirachian, Ambassador.

Giuseppe Morabito, Minister Plenipotentiary.

Luca Mozzi, Sconfinare.

Roberto Nigido, Ambassador.

Carlo Maria Oliva, Ambassador.

Giorgio Radicati, Ambassador.

Stefano Ronca, Ambassador.

Romano Toppan, Accademic.

Luca Volpato, Italian Office Council of Europe.

Kim Jong-un's BIO

He was born in Pyongyang in 1983. Son of Kim Jong-il, he studied computer science and obtained two degrees, one in Physics at Kim Il Sung University and another at the Military Academy. He then continued his studies in Switzerland (under a pseudonym) at the public school in Bern. Nicknamed the "brilliant comrade", in 2010 he was appointed general of the Army, as well as elected a member of the Central Committee of the Labor Party and vice president of its Military Commission. Since December 2011, the month in which his father died, he has been leading the country (assisted by his uncle Jang-Song-thaek); third son, he was preferred to his brothers Kim Jong Nam and Kim Jong Chol, arousing quite a few fears in the international community, also concerned about the possible escalation of tensions with South Korea. Appointed marshal of the army in July 2012, in the parliamentary elections for the renewal of the Supreme People's Assembly held in March 2014 with a turnout of 99% the politician, the only candidate for his district, predictably obtained 100% of the preferences. The dictatorial regime established by Kim Jong-un, which made a series of changes within the central institutions of the country, further tightening the policy implemented by Kim Jong-il and expanding the nuclear and ballistic weapons program despite the economic sanctions of the community international, has increased hostility in relations with the USA, which became particularly tense after the election of Donald Trump to the US presidency, and aroused strong contradictions also in those with China, which, while confirming itself as the main ally of the North Korean regime, has taken more cautious positions and mediators. Despite the economic sanctions imposed on the country by the international community, atomic tests continued under its dictatorial regime, increasing hostility in relations with the United States, which experienced moments of high tension following the launch of missiles in July 2017 intercontinental ballistic weapons and repeated threats of an attack on the US territory of Guam. A phase of progressive thaw began in the following months, starting with the easing of relations

Diplomatic Dialogue with the participation of the Central Director for Sub-Saharan Africa of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Min. Plen. Giuseppe MISTRETTA and Fleet Admiral Giuseppe BERUTTI BERGOTTO, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Navy

and with the participation of the Ambassadors of the Circle of Diplomatic Studies:

Maria Assunta ACCILI, Adriano BENEDETTI, Paolo CASARDI, Giorgio MALFATTI of MONTE TRETTO, Maurizio MELANI, Laura MIRACHIAN, Giuseppe MORABITO, Carlo Maria OLIVA, Stefano RONCA.

Paolo Casardi: dear friends, welcome to the Diplomatic Dialogue on Security and Cooperation on the African Continent. In particular, I would like to give the warmest welcome to our two guests: Admiral Giuseppe Berutti Bergotto, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Navy and Minister Plenipotentiary Giuseppe Mistretta, Africa Central Director of the Farnesina, whom we now consider a dear friend which needs no introduction.

Admiral Berutti Bergotto instead visits us for the first time, taking the place of the Chief of Staff, Admiral Enrico Credendino, called to another urgent, unexpected, international task.

I would like to point out some aspects of the career of Admiral Berutti Bergotto, an expert in North African naval missions, which demonstrate how, in every rank, the Admiral has received assignments of the highest level. In 2005, as Captain of the Vessel he followed the fitting out of the destroyer Andrea Doria, one of the most prestigious ships in our fleet, later assuming command. As Admiral, he commanded the second naval division, that of Taranto, together with the command of the Italian High Seas Forces, eventually taking on the responsibility of the Naval Personnel Directorate. He has been appointed Deputy Chief of Staff for a year.

Well, going back to our Diplomatic Dialogue, we know that in addition to the EU and its members and in addition to the United States and Russia, China has now also spread its geo-economic influence on the continent, through ambitious infrastructure projects. In addition, Iran, Turkey and the Gulf countries are active in certain areas of the continent. This has caused, also according to some African colleagues, that the different "policies" on Africa of these countries are inspired more by strategic competition, rather than by the desire to create a more prosperous ecosystem to make room for development and improve the conditions of life of Africans. In short, there is the risk that Africa will turn into the theater of a multipolar cold war. The EU is asked to play a moderating role in these trends, also through the example of "good practices" of cooperation and moralisation.

Are the coups d'etat, five in the Sahel area alone in less than two years, perpetrated in Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Mali and Sudan and the two failed ones (Guinea Bissau and Niger) the result of the aforementioned tensions?

Nothing new under the sun, some will say. Today, however, the problems for Africa have increased compared to the past, amid environmental difficulties and more frequent wars. The arrival of jihad, the consequences of the war in Ukraine, which in turn cause more migrations etc., stir up strong concerns that the future of the continent could be seriously compromised by such situations. Also taking into account the demographic explosion that will see Africa exceed two billion inhabitants starting from 2050. Perhaps our guests could help us better understand the situation and trends.

I take advantage of the word for one more minute to confirm that we also have concerns about the maritime projection of African states. We are concerned about the maritime traffic in human beings, the practices of piracy and the smuggling of weapons, drugs or toxic waste. We would also like to understand the reasons for the important development of the African Mediterranean Navies (but also of South Africa) which in some cases have on board armaments that we ourselves do not have. And finally we would like to know what we have to think of the large concentration of bases and military ships in the Red Sea, even of major non-allied global powers. Many thanks,

We can then begin the interventions of the guests who will have around twenty minutes available for their intervention and, after the interventions of the members, another ten minutes for a reply. The first intervention of the shareholders will be carried out by the Co-President Amb. Maurice Melani. Thank you.

Giuseppe Mistretta: I thank the Circolo di Studi Diplomatici for having invited me for a second time to speak about Africa. In this circumstance we focus on security on the Continent. I am pleased to begin with an observation that I heard Pope Francis make on a recent public occasion: "Africa is in danger of going backwards" he said, and added "but Africa must not be exploited, it must be promoted" .

Taking these words as a starting point, it must be recognized that in many African territories the situation appears fragile and unstable, due to multiple factors, including some consequences of the Covid 19 pandemic, and the effects of the war in Ukraine.

To explain African dynamics, we often resort to a superficial narrative that tends to be very positive, based on topics such as the modernization of infrastructures, digitization, energy transition, demographic potential, etc.

About the aspects of greater fragility, such as the presence of situations of great political, economic, social instability, and about the multiplication of conflicts and coups d'état, there is less talk.

We will therefore try to touch on these themes that should not be overlooked.

There is an arc of instability which primarily involves the entire Sahelian area, up to and including the Horn of Africa, i.e. Ethiopia and Sudan, States which until recently were considered pillars of regional stability, and which today suffer conflicts and internal struggles still ongoing. The countries of the Sahel have unfortunately been involved in seven coups in two years. This is a very worrying phenomenon, which accompanies the tensions deriving from the offensive of Jihadist terrorism.

But the area of instability also expands in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where clashes between the M23 movement, various other militias and government forces have been going on for some time; it concerns the Central African Republic, Cameroon, divided between the Anglophone and French-speaking areas, and reaches as far as northern Mozambique, where there is an onset of confused jihadist origins.

It seems to me important to delve deeper into the phenomenon of coups in West Africa.

Back in vogue after a fairly long period of democratic transfers of power, the phenomenon brings us back to a reality that was believed to be extinct after the end of the regimes of the various Mobutu, Idi Amin, Gaddafi, Bokassa, Habré, etc.

The relative tranquility of recent years seemed to coincide with the affirmation of the principles of good governance and democracy, which with great difficulty tried to make their way on the Continent thanks also to the role of the African Union.

What often drives such military coups d'état is an anti-French, anti-European, anti-Western spirit, and an attitude favorable to Russia and to the new non-European actors appearing on the Continent.

All this has forced the West and the EU to reconsider what has been done in the Sahel.

Over the past four years, Italy has opened new embassies in the Sahel, increased cooperation, launched a very important military training collaboration in Niger and has also operated within the framework of the Task Force Takuba, jointly with other European troops, including those of the France and Denmark. We participate in the "Alliance Sahel", which brings together the cooperation efforts made by the main Western partners, and also in the "Coalition pour le Sahel", and in the American-led Africa Focus Group.

As for terrorism in the Sahel, it is also expanding due to the inability of the states to control very large territories, and due to the consequent dissatisfaction of the populations, who in addition to suffering from poverty, suffer the raids of jihadist terrorism and ethnic clashes.

The hoarding of rare resources is another of the factors that have developed in a worrying way in the last period, and which generates further insecurity and instability, also in relation to the attitude that we can define as predatory on the part of the so-called new players.

We mentioned at the beginning that even the war in Ukraine is today one of the factors that contributes to instability in Africa, both because of the food consequences and for those of a more strictly political nature.

Faced with this complex picture, today Italy and the EU identify the Sahel in Mauritania and Niger as the main partners who, albeit with a thousand difficulties, are trying to maintain the constitutional arrangements within them. They are today the fulcrum of Western collaboration in the Sahelian region.

More generally, at a time like this, it seems appropriate to focus on the most stable and economically advanced states, such as Ghana, Senegal, Kenya, RSA, Ivory Coast, so that they themselves can be the driving force of stability and progress in neighboring countries.

Earlier we spoke of the new players in Africa, such as Turkey, the Gulf countries, Russia and others, which have rules of engagement on the Continent that are very different from those of Europe and the West. They have hidden agendas, of a religious, financial, strategic, military nature, which are not always in line with the authentic needs of the Continent. Above all, they do not care about the development of good governance, the rule of law, democratic alternation, the institutional growth of African states, concerns that instead accompany the initiatives of the EU.

As far as China is concerned, it should not be considered a new player, since it has been operating in Africa for decades, and has objectively contributed to the infrastructural growth of the Continent.

In conclusion, it seems useful to me to recall which are the pillars of the European strategy on the African continent, with which Italy fully associates itself.

From the EU-AU summit in Abidjan in 2017 to the one in Brussels in February this year, a genuine partnership has been established between Europe and Africa. From a strictly economic point of view, it was agreed to give priority to alleviating poverty through new investments, business creation, employment growth for young people, given that poverty is often the root cause of phenomena such as crime, terrorism and trafficking of human beings.

For this reason, an ambitious plan such as the "Global Gateway" was approved in 2022, established at the last Brussels summit, preceded in 2017 by the "European External Investment Plan"; the Global Gateway envisages investments of one hundred and fifty billion euros in Africa between now and 2027, a figure far greater than those that the so-called new players dedicate to the Continent.

However, the problem remains of how to stimulate companies to invest in Africa when situations of war and instability persist, or in the presence of an unprecedented financial crisis, or in conditions of hydrogeological instability due to the terrible consequences of climate change on the continent. These are the challenges we will have to respond to in the immediate future.

Giuseppe Berutti Bergotto: I thank the members of the Board of Directors and the Members of the Circolo Studi Diplomatici and in particular the Amb. Paolo Casardi and the Amb. Maurizio Melani for the invitation to discuss, together with Amb. Giuseppe Mistretta, a theme of extreme topicality and common interest such as "Security and cooperation in Africa". I reflected them on the aspects of instability on the African continent, their causes and the strategies that the International Community, with specific reference to the European Union, has adopted, allow me to illustrate the role of the Navy in an area whose breadth and complexity, associated with the relevance of the national interests to be safeguarded, above and below the surface of the sea, require a careful and prospective use of the maritime instrument for the tasks assigned to the Armed Forces, by the national legal system and those deriving from the commitments assumed by the country within the framework of the Alliances and the international coalitions to which it adheres.

Allow me first of all to make some preliminary considerations: the sea is the common good par excellence, on which our progress depends. Italy, a country that geography and economy inextricably link to a maritime vocation, owes much of its prosperity and security to the sea and the activities connected to it. More generally, the sea has always influenced the growth and progress of all nations. In fact, today about eighty percent of the world's population lives within the first two hundred kilometers of the coast; moreover, 90% of all world trade moves along the sea routes, not only for the economic advantages that derive from them or for geographical constraints, but also for the lower impacts on the environment in terms of pollution; using the sea as a communication system for the transport of materials, the level of pollution is five times lower than road traffic and three times lower than rail traffic.

Our country, which stretches out into the sea with its 8,000 kilometers of coastline, which represent 7/8 of its borders, is a medium-sized regional power with a strong maritime connotation whose main interests, in line with the recent Ministerial Directive for the The Security and Defense Strategy for the Mediterranean, issued by the pro-tempore Defense Minister, takes the form of the so-called Enlarged Mediterranean area, a geopolitical, geostrategic and geoeconomic concept that is not new, but which over time has contemplated a progressive geographical lengthening of the Mediterranean Sea up to and including the Somali Basin, the Gulf of Guinea, and the Strait of Hormuz. It is within this area that Italy's maritime interests are largely concentrated, from security and the economy to the broader geopolitical role that the country can assume at an international level. I also add those areas that are only apparently more distant, but strongly binding, determined by the melting of the ice in the Arctic which would open up new sea routes with repercussions on our ports and, more generally, on the role of the Mediterranean Sea. Suffice it to think, in this regard, of the sorting port of Gioia Tauro, where large commercial ships arrive from the Suez Canal and from which the goods then depart for the rest of Italy. The Navy is present in the Arctic supporting research campaigns and the acquisition of marine geophysical data aimed at increasing knowledge and study of these portions of the sea.

Returning to the Mediterranean Sea, it represents the hinge between Europe, Asia and Africa and is a fundamental connector between the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific oceanic areas. Ensuring the safety of maritime transport and, more generally, the safe use of the sea is essential.

In this context, I highlight the strategic importance of the so-called chocke-points; without freedom and safety of navigation in these obligatory passages, our import-export system simply stops. In fact, for our country, the Mediterranean means above all navigation and commercial flows "to" and "between" Suez, Gibraltar, the Strait of Sicily and the Turkish Straits. Referring to the Suez Canal, it should be remembered that the stranding of the tanker Ever Given in 2021 caused 9.6 billion euros of damage per day and the blockage of 400 ships. This episode shows vulnerability and its important, if not critical, consequences on the global economy and, in particular, on ours.

In 2021, the 51.2 billion euros produced by the blue economy activated a further 84.8 billion euros, for a total amount of 136 billion euros, or 9.1% of the national GDP. These data show a multiplier of 1.7 for the «Sea System» and, in particular, 2.4 for the «Military shipbuilding sector and related high-tech industry» for every euro invested. I also underline how maritime activities have a high level of integration with the rest of the national economy which is purely transformational and which depends on the sea for the supply of around 60% of the total amount of raw materials and around 50% of the transfer of own exports.

Another point to underline in order to have a clear and detailed picture of the importance of the Mediterranean Sea concerns the seabed, now real strategic corridors for energy supplies and the continuity of telematic services. With reference to this last aspect, contrary to the common perception, which associates the prevalence of data traffic with satellites, the bottom of the sea hosts a dense network of cables which ensure about eighty percent of transmissions on a global scale. In this regard, the Navy has recently signed an agreement with TIM Sparkle, a company that manages most of the communication cables that serve Italy, providing assistance for the verification of the pipelines that connect Linosa to Sicily.

Coming to today's issues and focusing on the aspectsof energy supplies, it is necessary to consider both the origin of the natural gas and where the main Italian gas pipelines are located. In the north, Italy receives the gas that comes from Russia, Norway and Holland through the two loops that arrive in Friuli Venezia-Giulia and Piedmont. The Southern Corridor also needs to be particularly carefully considered as it involves Puglia and Sicily crossing, respectively, with a direct connection, Albania and Greece but also Libya, Tunisia and Algeria. Since Africa is the continent from which a considerable and not indifferent quantity of natural gas arrives, it is easy to understand how a situation of uncertainty, crisis and destabilization of the area can clearly affect sectors of primary importance for Italy . And again, as regards the maritime traffic of liquefied gas, this comes mainly from Mozambique, where ENI has extraction, treatment and export plants, as well as from the Congo and Nigeria.

In general terms, the security context from a maritime perspective should be analyzed for three distinct areas of interest: North Africa/Mediterranean, Gulf of Guinea and Horn of Africa (Gulf of Aden/Northeast Indian Ocean).

As for North Africa, deferring on the Libyan issue, several issues afflict the area. Of primary importance is the deterioration of bilateral relations between Morocco and Algeria; continuing eastwards, Tunisia has long been afflicted by internal problems, which undermine its stability, and finally Egypt, the last African country facing the Mediterranean, is currently experiencing a difficult phase, due to numerous concomitant criticalities. As regards the Gulf of Guinea, a strategic transit area for extractive activities and for the transport of goods to and from the Mediterranean, the economies of the coastal countries are mostly based on the exploitation of natural resources, primarily maritime, but the socio-economic fragility favor the proliferation of criminal activities and illicit trafficking. It turns out to be the first area on a global scale for the incidence of the piracy phenomenon. Finally, as regards the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, transit area for trade heading from the east to the Mediterranean, it should be noted that the navies of the area have, on the whole, insufficient capacity to fulfill the commitments of institute (mostly attributable to those of a Coast Guard).

The African continent poses important security challenges in the Enlarged Mediterranean, including naval rearmament, maritime piracy, illicit trafficking, the proliferation of regional crises and instability. With reference to the location of the navies of other countries in the area, the American presence, in recent years, has experienced a progressive decrease, with a greater presence of assets towards the Indo-Pacific. At the same time, the armed conflict in Ukraine has led to the Russian naval increase in the Mediterranean, with a modern and capable base in Tartus, which however lacks from a functional point of view, forcing the ships to periodically return to their motherland for regular maintenance cycles , as there are no structures set up for this purpose on site. Without also omitting the base built in Port Sudan which supports the Russian access capabilities to the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal.

The naval rearmament involved various navies of the Mediterranean basin and, in particular, Algeria, Turkey and Egypt. The Algerian navy has had a remarkable growth in the last twenty-two years, going from a fleet of very few and small units, to committing six percent of GDP in 2019 to maritime defence. It has ships of a high technological level and varied operational capabilities, including amphibious ones. The first supplier remains Russia, from which the Algerians have also acquired submarines capable of launching "deep strike" missiles. In just a few years, Turkey has increased its workforce from forty thousand units to today's sixty thousand, also acquiring its own naval unit construction capacity. Finally, Egypt is continuing the modernization of its fleet, started 10 years ago, at a high pace. As far as the renewal is concerned, I indicate that in the recent past, the Egyptian navy has equipped itself with Italian-French FREMM frigates and amphibious units; furthermore, as regards the modernization of the underwater fleet, it turned to the Germans for the acquisition of boats.

Turning now to the security point of view, Africa can be considered divided into three regions: North Africa/Sahel and its southern extremities of the Gulf of Aden and the Gulf of Guinea. Diplomatic missions have been activated to allow these countries to have the possibility of greater control of merchant traffic. An attempt is being made to extend this capacity throughout the African territory, promoting the creation of di a vessel traffic monitoring system. Such a system could thus contribute to reducing, with the presence of control ships, the phenomenon of piracy which today appears to be very present and pressing in the Gulf of Guinea, although it has decreased considerably, with a number of cases still equal to 20 in the this year, when in 2018 there were 143. Over the last decade, efforts to generate maritime security cooperation between governments and regions on the continent have produced an increasingly clear framework for an African approach to maritime security. While much of North Africa cooperates with southern Europe through the 5+5 Defense Initiative, the codes of conduct of Djibouti and Yaounde are the main pillars of maritime security cooperation for the rest of the continent. The Djibouti Code brought together several states of the Arabian Peninsula together with all states of East, Southern and Indian Ocean Africa, from Egypt to South Africa, to cooperate in the fight against piracy. Taking inspiration from this initiative and tackling this problem on their own, states in the wider Gulf of Guinea, from Senegal to Angola, formed the Yaoundé Code in 2013.

The security and stability of the African continent is crucial for Italy and for the European Union. The Navy's commitment is expressed along the three reference sectors that I have mentioned: the Mediterranean, the Gulf of Guinea and the north-eastern part of the Indian Ocean, both in cooperative and operational terms, in the context of bilateral and multilateral relations and in the framework of structured alliances. With this approach, the Navy supports and promotes actions for maritime safety and the defense of maritime communication lines and freedom of navigation, the protection of national interests, the contribution to regional stability and crisis management, within the framework of the Alliances, to support and development of an open and structured dialogue, up to the promotion of national competitiveness and industrial cooperation, from a country system perspective.

First of all, in wanting to provide a brief update on the activities of the Navy, I would like to highlight how Operation Safe Mediterranean, born following the enlargement of the area of operations of the previous Operation Safe Sea, represents the key operation for the protection of the interests present in the Mediterranean area, the fight against illegal activities by sea, the defense of the vital lines of maritime communication that cross it, energy security and the protection of critical infrastructures, including underwater pipelines.

In terms of engagement within the European Union, Operation IRINI has the main task of helping to prevent arms trafficking in the theater of operation and implement the arms embargo imposed by the UN. In particular, the mission carries out inspections of vessels on the high seas off the Libyan coast suspected of carrying arms or related material to and from Libya. The secondary tasks of IRINI tend to an evolution of the operation towards a broader commitment in the maritime security sector at 360 degrees. The Navy contributes to IRINI by ensuring Operational Command and continuity of operational assets.

As regards the fight against piracy in the Gulf of Aden and the Somali basin, the Navy contributes to the ATALANTA operation by ensuring regular operational assets and tactical command. This activity constitutes the first European-led military operation of a maritime nature. Over the past decade, naval persistence in the Gulf of Aden has resulted in an area considered high-risk having virtually zero piracy events. For this reason, from 1 January 2023 IMO will declare the cancellation of the high-risk area in the north-western Indian Ocean.

Last July, Italy assumed the Command of the EMASOH Operation in the second half of 2022, feeding the staff and making REVEL's THAON ship, a new generation multi-purpose offshore patrol vessel, available as the Headquarters Unit. This Operation was activated by some European countries, including Italy, following the growing situation of insecurity and instability caused by numerous maritime and non-maritime accidents that occurred in 2019. The purpose of the operation is to ensure, through a de-escalation, stability in the region and freedom of navigation.

In the Gulf of Guinea, the Navy has set up Operation GABINIA, a national mission of anti-piracy, presence, surveillance and maritime security, as a coherent response to the progressive increase in risks and threat level to maritime security in that area.

Finally, the Multinational Force & Observers (MFO) located in the Sinai Peninsula since 1982 and which since then has been operating to control the border between Egypt and Israel, from the Mediterranean to Sharm El Sheikh and in the Strait of Tiran. The participation of the Navy in the maritime part of the MFO guarantees presence and surveillance in the waters of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aqaba with a contingent consisting of three EXPLORER class patrol vessels.

Many of the security challenges that today reverberate on the Enlarged Mediterranean originate from the African continent, both from the northern belts and from the sub-Saharan offshoots. This requires placing great effort and attention in the dynamics of security and cooperation with Africa, whose stability is essential to stem the spread of crises and illicit trafficking, for our energy and economic security as well as to avert the risk of deterioration of the security framework in the Mediterranean region.

Maurizio Melani: first of all, I thank Admiral Berutti Bergotto and my colleague Mistretta for their very interesting and exhaustive expositions.

Africa is fundamental for Italy and for Europe. In terms of security, energy supplies, prospects for sustainable development on both sides of the Mediterranean, the management of migratory phenomena. The advantages dhe globalization, before the critical issues emerged, have involved the African continent in recent decades. In the first decade of this century, growth rates were high. The major financial flows were made up of direct investments, private or in any case made with market logic, from developed and emerging countries which also stimulated internal investments, from remittances from emigrants and less from public development aid, bilateral or multilateral in the classic forms of highly subsidized gifts and credits. Millions of people have emerged from poverty and we have witnessed the growth of a middle class parallel to a strong urbanization process. However, this development has been uneven and often discriminatory on ethnic or other grounds, or at least perceived as such. It has also been substantially arrested with cumulative effects by the economic-financial crisis in the United States and in Europe, by the pandemic and by the increasingly intense and widespread effects of climate change, desertification processes, population displacements and conflicts which with these they have intertwined with the jihadist offensive, with consequences on global security in the broadest sense, including the vital one for the world economy of freedom of navigation along the African coasts on which Admiral Berutti Bergotto dwelled so well. The war in Ukraine has further produced harmful effects.

On the political and institutional level, after the end of the Cold War and its rigidities, Africa had experienced a season of widespread even if precarious democratization. End of many predominantly military-led one-party regimes, multi-party, but often ethnically based, elected governments and transfers of power through elections rather than coups. However, the elections frequently proved to be factors of instability. The winners have not on several occasions given up on excluding others and not adequately recognizing the rights of the opposition. And the losers, rightly or wrongly, have often rejected the electoral results, denouncing fraud and disabling irregularities. The new systems have therefore highlighted their weaknesses, albeit with different intensities. Those in the States of the Sahelian belt are very acute, where the destabilizing phenomena and disintegration of state structures have manifested themselves more and where the resumption of the season of coups d'état is more evident.

In this process we have witnessed changes in the balance of external influences. The French one, after the downward adjustment of the British one in previous years, had already undergone a downsizing since the 90s to the advantage, then, of the United States which with the Clinton Administration had increased their attention towards the African continent, and of South Africa freed from the burden of apartheid. In the second decade of this century, the difficulties encountered by France and its European allies including Italy, and by the United States themselves in countering the jihadist offensive especially in the Sahel, gave way to Russian penetration in the field of security in favor of regimes progressively less linked to France, often in exchange for advantages in the acquisition of mineral resources and political dividends useful in the framework of Russia's renewed political action towards the Middle East, the Mediterranean and Eastern Europe. At the same time, the presence of China has grown considerably. This has created new infrastructures, not always of the best quality but in any case necessary for the development not only of individual countries but also of regional cooperation. In some cases it has favored the start of industrial activities preceded, however, by nonchalant forms of hoarding of mineral and agricultural resources and by growing indebtedness which, from this point of view, seems to be taking the continent back decades. The fact is that in this context, Europe and the West in general see their ability to influence a continent that is so important to us comparatively reduced compared to new players. In addition to those already indicated, such actors are Turkey and the Gulf countries especially in North Africa and the Horn, each with its own often contradicting agendas. It is true that Europe, as Giuseppe Mistretta has clearly pointed out, has a program of interventions much greater than those of others. But it is also true that, as demonstrated by developments in Libya and in other crisis areas, we are much less able than before to operate to favor processes of sustainable stability.

If there is a positive aspect to note, it is that despite the political-institutional crises in many countries, regional institutions and in particular the African Union seem to hold up, albeit with many limitations and difficulties, in affirming their role in the management and resolution of conflicts thanks also to the support provided above all by the European Union and initiated at the time by President Prodi. This was seen in the still precarious peace negotiations between the Ethiopian government and the Tigrinya TPLF and in other situations in the more or less recent past. On the other hand, it was seen less in the attempts to resolve the dispute over the waters of the Nile between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia.

What to do? One often hears talk of a great development plan for Africa, linked above all to the migratory aspect. To be effective, it cannot be limited to strengthening the incentives and capacities to stop the flows as has been partially done with Turkey. Instead, it should address the problem in all its aspects. Those of adaptation to climate change and the fight against desertification, seriously implementing the commitments in favor of the most vulnerable countries made with the Paris Agreement and reaffirmed by COP 27 in Sharm el Sheikh, support for regional organizations together with the United Nations for the solution of conflicts with civil and military means, the creation of infrastructures and energy development that gives ever greater space to renewable sources of which Africa has great potential, support for the development of income-producing and employment-producing activities, the reconstruction of institutions, the establishment of substantial channels of legal migration and circular mobility. To be effective, it must have dimensions far greater than those considered so far and must necessarily involve collaboration between the EU, the United States, despite its current priorities in other areas, and also, as Giuseppe Mistretta rightly pointed out, China. All players who, for various reasons, have at least an interest in stability and sustainable development on the African continent. It is undoubtedly a difficult perspective, but one that must be pursued. And it would be good if above all Italy, France and hopefully Germany are promoters together with the European institutions.

Maria Assunta Accili: I would like to thank our speakers for their comprehensive presentations which clearly highlighted the relevance of the African continent for the security and prosperity of our country. Despite the progress that has been made in various areas, Africa remains a great source of instability on Europe's doorstep and the solution to the complex problems afflicting the continent does not seem, unfortunately, within reach. Indeed, it seems that in some areas there has been a regression, despite the efforts made by numerous players, including Italy: the fight against poverty and underdevelopment finds its limit in the unprecedented demographic growth which reduces the possibility of access to food , drinking water, health and education; climate change accentuates desertification and the reduction of productive areas for agriculture and livestock that are crucial for the livelihoods of many African nations; debt crisis and poor management of resources make the financial situation of many states increasingly fragile; tribal conflicts, jihadist radicalism and terrorism favor massive and disorderly movements of populations inside and towards Europe; governance shortcomings, continuous coups d'état, corruption and manifest contempt for the rule of law unleash social tensions ready to explode in the squares and jeopardize an adequate and sustainable solution to continental problems, while illegal activities of all sorts, with particular reference to piracy and all kinds of trafficking, including the dramatic trafficking of human beings, proliferate thanks to the initiative of transnational organized crime in the absence of effective policies to reform and combat violence and abuse. Nor does it seem that the activism of some countries trying to replace the old colonial powers with obidifferent factors - from the increase of global influence to aggressive economic expansion, from the promotion of autocratic corporate models to the spread of specific ideologies or religions - such as China, Russia and Turkey in the first place, is producing a significant attenuation of the crisis factors. On the contrary, it seems that they add new elements of contradiction to the fragile and complex picture that has been carefully outlined for us.

The volatility of the African geo-political context, also heavily conditioned by the declared and latent conflicts in the Middle East and by the repercussions of the war in Ukraine, has an effective and growing impact on our country which amply justifies the need to work for a "safe Mediterranean ” evoked by Admiral Berutti Bergotto.

As an old British saying went, "control of the sea keeps the world free". And this also applies to today's Italy which needs to protect the seas that surround it to guarantee its own safety and freedom of navigation. In fact, the Mediterranean remains a channel of connection and exchange that is still fundamental for our economy and for the world: neither antagonistic nor alternative, but parallel to the development of the Indo-Pacific quadrant. Without prejudice to the necessary updates, the "Strategic guidelines for the Navy 2019-2034" and the most recent Compendium on Maritime Security and Defense offer a fully shareable analysis and perspective on our maritime interests and the impact they have on of them the African problems. I would therefore be grateful for an in-depth analysis of three aspects of the question which seem to me to be central and which in my opinion must encourage renewed attention to the strengthening of the Italian Navy: the relative American disengagement, Russian ambitions and the complex dualism which characterizes relations with Partner/competitor countries such as Turkey and Egypt.

As is evident from the screenshot presented by the Deputy Chief of Staff, which shows an impressive crowding of potentially even hostile shipping, the Mediterranean remains a strategic priority for Italy and since all the critical African issues affect the Mediterranean, an incisive foreign policy is needed towards Africa, possibly coordinated with our European partners, which cannot disregard a credible defense policy.

Protecting communications and transport, exchanges, digital networks, the supply of raw materials especially with regard to energy and rare earths, the sustainable exploitation of fish resources and the safety of navigation in general is a fundamental objective for the protection of the prosperity and freedom of our country and I hope that the Navy will be able to face the current and latent challenges with adequate resources.

Laura Mirachian: thanking our guests for the authoritative analysis of the picture of serious and widespread instability on the African continent and of the work of the Italian Navy, I would like to have the qualified judgment of those directly involved in making a concrete contribution to the problem of migration . In particular, in the transition from MARE NOSTRUM to the SOPHIA operation to the IRINI operation, what has changed? The security aspect and the humanitarian aspect intertwine, in fact, to the point of making a clear reading of the individual missions in question and of the recordable evolution over the years of the operations at sea in which Italy and Europe are protagonists problematic. I would ask you to extend your judgment to future prospects, keeping in mind the imperatives of efficiency, effectiveness, and last but not least, morality. Thank you.

Giuseppe Morabito: Admiral, just a very brief question. I was very impressed and surprised when you said that the Italian Navy has twenty ships on patrol every day at the same time. A very substantial number. A considerable commitment in men and means. I would like to know, by way of comparison, what is the commitment, in terms of ships, of the other European Navies, in particular of those of States comparable to ours, which also spend more on defence. I am referring in particular to France, which however I imagine, in addition to the African continent, will be interested in Overseas Territories such as those of the Caribbean or French Polynesia, Germany and Great Britain (which, although not part of the European Union, is still a European country). Thank you.

Adriano Benedetti: first of all, a heartfelt thanks to our two illustrious speakers who outlined the topic we addressed today with competence and a sincere approach. Even if one is not structurally pessimistic, as is my case, it is difficult to see in the current situation in Africa anything but reasons for concern and unease for the West. In recent decades, having abandoned hopes, unfortunately the result of an unfounded optimism, relating to a rapid process of development and economic-political adjustment, we must note that the overall situation of the continent is characterized by a progressive deterioration. Development is languishing in a large part of Africa, problems are gathering in many countries that allow us to glimpse increasingly imminent hypotheses of "failed states" and involution, no less, on the other hand, the reality of a growing disproportion between population and usable resources . From here unstoppable migratory movements not only within the continent but also towards the north, towards Europe. Western countries, first and foremost the European ones, are increasingly experiencing the difficulty of coping in Africa with decidedly negative socio-economic-political trends. It is inevitable to note that, in the current historical phase, Europe in particular struggles to manage the challenges that come from an unsuccessful and rancorous decolonization. Other powers, on the other hand, seem intent on contending for the role played in Africa until recently by Western countries. There is no doubt that China, Russia and Turkey have turned their spotlight on Africa. For China, this has been a policy that has been consolidated for several years. The Chinese presence on the continent is increasingly rooted and widespread. The modalities of the Chinese commitment (large investments above all in infrastructural works and apparent estrangement from internal political events) present attractive aspects for the local elites, but contain the premises for a progressive economic enslavement to Beijing which, sooner or later, could materialize in tensions not easily stopped. The Chinese offer nothing that doesn't have a price, even if it has a deferred maturity. The certainly positive aspects of the Chinese presence so far must therefore be projected into the future when they could become problematic.

Russia, on the other hand, pursues a policy of mainly military presence (through, in particular, the Wagner group) which up to now and for the near future seems to find favor with some governments grappling with serious internal stability challenges.

Finally, Turkey which dusts off, with military assistance, investment capital, cultural promotion in the civic-religious field, the glories of the past in some countries and which acts with long-term objectives.

Faced with the strength and enterprise, with different modalities, of the aforementioned three powers, the European countries seem on the defensive and give the impression of preparing for a retreat, of which we have not yet seen the more long-term aspects.

In conclusion, the African situation appears to be in continuous flux, with the West struggling to defend the positions of the past and which seems to adapt more and more to the idea of a relegation, if not economic at least strategic and political, in the face of the consolidation of competitors and not friendly.

Stefano Ronca: In complimenting both speakers for their excellent and informative presentations, I would like to address the first question to Giuseppe Mistretta. I recall that in our meeting last year on Africa, a highly topical issue was that of the dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt regarding the great dam (GERD) which Addis Ababa has built to provide itself with an immense water reserve. The project had serious environmental and geopolitical implications. As we know Egypt is 90 percent dependent on the Nile for its water supply and Ethiopian control over Cairo's main water source poses a great risk of conflict. Could you update us on what the situation is today?

I would like to ask Admiral Berutti Bergotto a question relating to the values which the Navy carries, the meaning they have for civil society and the importance that they are safeguarded and disseminated.

These days in the arsenal of Taranto, a 15 million Euro blockbuster is being filmed on the adventure of the Cappellini submarine which was commanded, in September 1940, by Lieutenant Commander Salvatore Todaro. The episode tells of when, after having resurfaced and having sunk an armed merchant vessel flying the Belgian flag Todaro with the onboard cannon, with personal risk of his life and that of his men, he saved the entire crew of the merchant vessel by towing them on a raft and embarking it when the sea conditions no longer allowed it, on board the submarine. Todaro repeated the same operation two years later with another armed merchantman, this time a British one.

In a book by Sandro Veronesi, Strega Award and co-author with the director Edoardo de Angelis, of the screenplay of the "Comandante", which will be published in January parallel to the release of the film, the theme of sea rescue today so topical will be treated as linked to numerous cases of shipwreck of migrants and refugees often subject to human trafficking. An interesting aspect that characterizes naval warfare is that, unlike land combat, it is a war aimed at means and not at men. I believe that this is one of the founding aspects among those that characterize the psychology of the naval officer. The duty of sea rescue is in fact intrinsic to the ethics and professionalism of every captain and every sailor and lies beyond any friend/enemy logic.

Veronesi in a very recent interview in Corriere della Sera underlines how in Italy there is a too marked distance between military life and civilian life (unlike those countries, I might add, winners of the last war, or presumed to be so). This distance has perhaps been the cause of a weakening, in our country, of values and traditions that have little or nothing to do with strictly military aspects and pertain to the ethical sphere of every civil society. Among them are loyalty, generosity, solidarity and reliability which are universal values. In fact, the armed forces spend a large part of their existence in long periods of peace and, especially those of democratic countries, have their raison d'être precisely in preventing war. The qualities I have mentioned, of which the Italian Navy is an eminent bearer, are above all indispensable for the correct, legitimate and effective functioning of these forces aimed at guaranteeing the security of the State and its people. This is demonstrated by the fact that even when it comes to dealing with great civil emergencies with efficiency and sacrifice (Covid 19, earthquakes, floods, etc...) we always resort to them.

Now I would like to ask the Admiral if the Navy continues to be aware of this need for osmosis of its values towards civil society (I really think so, judging by the example of the film it is sponsoring on the summer gibile Cappellini) and through which other initiatives, in the field of communication and "outreach" towards civil society, in addition to this last commendable project. Thank you.

Giuseppe Berutti Bergotto: I will make some considerations which, I believe, will be able to answer the questions that have been posed to me.

In the Mediterranean, the percentage of sea unclaimed by any state is less than twenty percent. It is therefore evident that in the rest of the maritime territory there are various state powers that intend to manage waters and seabeds in their own way. There are occasions in which the zones cross and overlap as is happening between us and Algeria. The latter is in fact imposing as its EEZ an area that goes from its coasts to the coasts of Sardinia. In June 2021, the Italian Parliament approved a law for the establishment of an exclusive economic zone beyond the outer limit of the territorial sea. The Law also provides for the conclusion of specific agreements with the states whose territory is adjacent to or faces Italy, albeit in its difficult application, also due to the well-known problems created with Tunisia, Malta and Algeria.

When going to sea, the Navy is very careful to avoid the creation of circumstances that could trigger escalation situations or direct confrontations. The Ministry for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation is the interlocutor who is dealing with managing precisely these relations in the context of the delicate negotiation relating to delimitations.

The Italian Navy has forty-two deep-sea vessels, fifty-six if we consider new constructions. In fact, the use of a ship continuously at sea requires a rotational principle on three units, one of which in operations, one in maintenance and one in training.

Within the Mediterranean we can ensure an effective presence for the protection of our national and maritime interests and for monitoring the dynamics that in the sea and from the sea could have an impact on our country.

Germany has a regular engagement in the Mediterranean, where it currently ensures the tactical command of the maritime task force of the UNIFIL operation. Other potentially competing countries, such as China, have advanced their candidacy for the next command of the mission, thus aiming to extend their projection into the Mediterranean. In this sense, the Navy has long offered the possibility of contributing its own naval units to the maritime component of the operation and of taking over the tactical command to replace Germany. This is relevant from the point of view of national and European naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean and could be achieved by favoring, in the next generation of UN forces, foreseeably starting from April 2023, the acceptance of national participation with tactical command functions.

From a technical-operational point of view, the Navy can carry out a wide range of missions which it manages according to a dynamic maneuver scheme. In fact, in the central Mediterranean, over time, I would say over the last ten years, we have witnessed an evolution of the operational posture of the Navy always in line with the political-strategic directives: at a national level starting from Operation MARE NOSTRUM, to then evolve into SAFE SEA before and SAFE MEDITERRANEAN now, within the European Union starting from EUNAVFORMED SOFIA, up to the current Operation IRINI. The evolution of the scenario and the dynamics of the operating methods implemented by the actors present on the scene have always guided the national choices and therefore the mission assigned to the Armed Forces.

As regards the specific question on the value scheme at the heart of the training of military personnel, there are numerous projects involving schools of all levels and various projects on a national scale aimed at participating in and illustrating the heritage of values that the Armed Force embodies.

Giuseppe Mistretta: our main objective is to promote balanced and stable development on the Continent.

China must also be held responsible for political issues, and this is what Europe is trying to do. We need to be able to involve it more in the theaters of crisis and in multinational forces, and not only from an economic point of view.

With regard to the weakening of the European effort in the Sahel (and partly in the Horn of Africa), pointed out by some of you, this is above all due to the fact that the EU and Italy had considered the G5 Sahel as the main partner of the their initiatives in the region, and now unfortunately the G5 Sahel is split internally and in fact inoperative.

Three of the Sahelian states have had coups d'état, with an anti-Western political positioning, in particular anti-French and pro-Russian, and this obviously does not help. Nor has it helped the conflict in Ethiopia, in which Eritrea has invaded Tigray.

In summary, today we are faced with a new Scramble for Africa, and each of the players, including Italy, plays according to their own rules. And it's not just an economic issue.

As regards the GERD Great Dam on the Nile, the subject of another question, the construction of the work is almost completed, but there are still only two active turbines in the hydroelectric plant, while the filling of the basin is continuing.

However, Egypt's diplomatic battle appears to be a rearguard one. There are 11 states bordering the Nile and each one wants to build its own dam. So it is difficult to claim rights that go back to old colonial treaties in which 9 of the 11 countries did not participate. The fact is that Egypt is starting to carry out very ambitious and expensive projects for desalination of the sea, which almost mark an acknowledgment of reality on the ground.

What Europe could do is propose a package of economic and financial interventions for the countries concerned, which would act as a stimulus and encouragement to reach an agreement between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt.

In conclusion, I would like to recall that by now in Africa, and within the African Union, the rule has prevailed that "African problems must be solved with African solutions", and this makes it more difficult to intervene on African issues from outside; sometimes we can accompany the ongoing processes and dynamics, but not influence them exclusively, or even determine them.

Russia-Ukraine: the United States in the conflict

Remarks by Ambassador Paolo Casardi

by Anna Bincoletto

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which began on February 20, 2022 with aggression by the former Soviet power, is still ongoing. What, in Vladimir Putin's mind, should have been a blitzkrieg with the establishment of a pro-Russian regime in Kiev, has turned into a war to the bitter end. Ukrainian resistance and economic aid from Western powers derail the Kremlin's initial plan, but it is not enough to cease fire.

Ambassador Paolo Casardi, former Director of Political Affairs at the WEU Secretariat, First Counselor to the Italian Mission to the UN and member of the Italian team in the Security Council, answers some questions about the ongoing war. Subsequently Chief of Cabinet of the Minister for Italians in the world and Ambassador to Chile. He ended his career in Rome first as Director of the Unit for authorizations for the import and export of armaments and finally as Inspector General of the Ministry and of offices abroad . He is currently Co-President of the Circle of Diplomatic Studies and Scientific Advisor (Humanities) of the Navy.

In your opinion, can we talk about the war between Russia and Ukraine as a global conflict? Do interventions and economic aid from various countries make it so or is it still to be considered a limited conflict?

Defining the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as global would be a simplification into which many fall, but it cannot be considered an exact definition. In reality, there is a European conflict between the aggressor and the attacked, i.e. between Russia and Ukraine, and there is also an explicit, i.e. active, confrontation between the West and Russia which manifests itself through the sanctions imposed on the aggressor, and the sending arms and economic aid to Ukraine. Someone speaks of a proxy conflict: a conflict between the West and Russia, but by proxy because it is fought only by Ukraine. In reality, according to International Law, the real conflict is the one that manifests itself with the war between the parties and this is only between Russia and Ukraine. Instead, there are global economic consequences due to the interruption of the flows of raw materials in the world following the conflict and the consequent increase in the prices of many goods, not only those related to war. When certain mechanisms are set in motion, inflation is unleashed which can also have global effects, as in this case. In conclusion, we can speak of a conflict between two European states, the political and economic consequences of which extend widely, both due to the repercussions of the sanctioning regime, and due to the various other economic repercussions on a global level, as mentioned above.

The United States is the power that has brought the most funding to Ukraine so far. Is American interest in the war comparable to fear of the Soviet Union during the Cold War?

We are not on the same level of US fear of Russia. Today's Russia no longer has the strategic projection capabilities of the past, the area of the world on which Russian power insists is not the same area on which the Soviet one could manifest itself. However, Russia retains a large part of the previous nuclear and missile capabilities of the USSR and therefore the United States are particularly concerned by the project expressed by Putin himself of wanting to bring Russia to the same level of political-military power that was typical of the Soviet Union.

Is the United States' fear of Russia, in your view, due to potential territorial expansion, the threat to democracy, or both?

Both, because territorial expansion can facilitate the growth of power, this almost always occurs on a military, strategic and economic level. Also, American power is based on democracy, the American military knows they are fighting for democracy. Any threat to the latter both external and internal (see the final phase of the Trump presidency) is a serious concern for Washington.

What do you think of the statement made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “like the brave American soldiers who held their lines and fought against Hitler's Nazi Germany in 1944, Ukrainian soldiers are doing the same with Putin's forces this Christmas ”?

The Ukrainian president wanted to draw a first parallel between German soldiers, i.e. the Nazis in the Second World War, and today's Russians because they are both aggressors and want to unlawfully and forcefully take away resources and independence from others. With a second parallel, he wanted to underline how the Ukrainians draw inspiration and example from the behavior of the American soldier contRussia-Ukraine: the United States in the conflict

Remarks by Ambassador Paolo Casardi

by Anna Bincoletto

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which began on February 20, 2022 with aggression by the former Soviet power, is still ongoing. What, in Vladimir Putin's mind, should have been a blitzkrieg with the establishment of a pro-Russian regime in Kiev, has turned into a war to the bitter end. Ukrainian resistance and economic aid from Western powers derail the Kremlin's initial plan, but it is not enough to cease fire.

Ambassador Paolo Casardi, former Director of Political Affairs at the WEU Secretariat, First Counselor to the Italian Mission to the UN and member of the Italian team in the Security Council, answers some questions about the ongoing war. Subsequently Chief of Cabinet of the Minister for Italians in the world and Ambassador to Chile. He ended his career in Rome first as Director of the Unit for authorizations for the import and export of armaments and finally as Inspector General of the Ministry and of offices abroad . He is currently Co-President of the Circle of Diplomatic Studies and Scientific Advisor (Humanities) of the Navy.

In your opinion, can we talk about the war between Russia and Ukraine as a global conflict? Do interventions and economic aid from various countries make it so or is it still to be considered a limited conflict?

Defining the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as global would be a simplification into which many fall, but it cannot be considered an exact definition. In reality, there is a European conflict between the aggressor and the attacked, i.e. between Russia and Ukraine, and there is also an explicit, i.e. active, confrontation between the West and Russia which manifests itself through the sanctions imposed on the aggressor, and the sending arms and economic aid to Ukraine. Someone speaks of a proxy conflict: a conflict between the West and Russia, but by proxy because it is fought only by Ukraine. In reality, according to International Law, the real conflict is the one that manifests itself with the war between the parties and this is only between Russia and Ukraine. Instead, there are global economic consequences due to the interruption of the flows of raw materials in the world following the conflict and the consequent increase in the prices of many goods, not only those related to war. When certain mechanisms are set in motion, inflation is unleashed which can also have global effects, as in this case. In conclusion, we can speak of a conflict between two European states, the political and economic consequences of which extend widely, both due to the repercussions of the sanctioning regime, and due to the various other economic repercussions on a global level, as mentioned above.

The United States is the power that has brought the most funding to Ukraine so far. Is American interest in the war comparable to fear of the Soviet Union during the Cold War?

We are not on the same level of US fear of Russia. Today's Russia no longer has the strategic projection capabilities of the past, the area of the world on which Russian power insists is not the same area on which the Soviet one could manifest itself. However, Russia retains a large part of the previous nuclear and missile capabilities of the USSR and therefore the United States are particularly concerned by the project expressed by Putin himself of wanting to bring Russia to the same level of political-military power that was typical of the Soviet Union.

Is the United States' fear of Russia, in your view, due to potential territorial expansion, the threat to democracy, or both?

Both, because territorial expansion can facilitate the growth of power, this almost always occurs on a military, strategic and economic level. Also, American power is based on democracy, the American military knows they are fighting for democracy. Any threat to the latter both external and internal (see the final phase of the Trump presidency) is a serious concern for Washington.

What do you think of the statement made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “like the brave American soldiers who held their lines and fought against Hitler's Nazi Germany in 1944, Ukrainian soldiers are doing the same with Putin's forces this Christmas ”?

The Ukrainian president wanted to draw a first parallel between German soldiers, i.e. the Nazis in the Second World War, and today's Russians because they are both aggressors and want to unlawfully and forcefully take away resources and independence from others. With a second parallel, he wanted to underline how Ukrainians draw inspiration and example from the behavior of the American soldier against the Nazis and in favor of freedom and democracy, to resist Russian military aggression today. With these comparisons, the president wanted on the one hand to underline the legitimate resistance of Ukraine against the Russian invader, but also the libertarian and democratic nature of the Ukrainian nation which fights not only for the conservation of its territory, but also, like the Americans, for respecting those values.

Qatargate: the scandal that is making Europe tremble

An analysis by Ambassador Maurizio Melani

by Agata Lucchetta

For months we have been hearing about Qatargate, the scandal involving some members of the European Parliament, accused of corruption in the interests of countries such as Morocco and Qatar. As known, investigations are underway by the Brussels prosecutor's office, together with those of Italy and Greece, the countries of origin of the main MEPs involved, in order to shed light on the matter. In the meantime, however, Pier Antonio Panzeri, former secretary general of the Milan Chamber of Labor, former member of the Democratic Party and MEP until 2019, was arrested, together with his right-hand man, the thirty-five-year-old Francesco Giorgi with his wife Eva Kaili, former vice president of Parliament Greek European and MEP, caught in the act while concealing the alleged bribes received; and again Niccolò-Figà Talamanca, director general of the NGO No peace without justice on charges of money laundering, and Luca Visentini, general secretary of the International Confederation of Trade Unions, who allegedly accepted fifty thousand euros from Panzeri's NGO, Fight Impunity. Other MEPs, not arrested, ended up in the crosshairs of the investigations: the MEP of the Democratic Party Francesco Cozzolino and two Belgian deputies Marc Tarabella and Marie Arena.

The reason for Qatar would seem to be to have the files on the workers who died during the construction of the facilities hosting the 2022 World Cup in Qatar deleted from the archives of the European Parliament and of the European and world trade union confederation. According to the investigators, however, for Morocco, through Abderrahim Atmoun, the Moroccan ambassador in Warsaw, who worked on behalf of Mohamed Bellahrach, an officer of the Dged (Delegation for relations with the Maghreb ed), was to influence the choices of the European Parliament and to alter the annual foreign policy report.

This is the case. On the possible consequences in European and world international relations, we questioned Ambassador Maurizio Melani, former Director General for the Promotion of the Country System at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador in Iraq, Italian Representative in the Political and Security Committee of the EU, Director General for Africa, Ambassador to Ethiopia, Head of the Office for Relations with Parliament in the Cabinet of the Foreign Minister. Extraordinary professor of international relations at Link Campus University, lecturer in other higher education institutions and author of numerous publications in this field, he is Co-President of the Circolo di Studi Diplomatici.

Ambassador, good morning. As you know, for some time now the Belgian prosecutor has been investigating some MEPs accused of having been corrupted by countries such as Qatar and Morocco. How can this scandal affect European and international public opinion, and how much could the image of the EU be damaged in terms of credibility and reliability?

Good morning. The news that has emerged so far on the serious corruptive activities involving members, former members and collaborators of the European Parliament by foreign governments, in particular those of Qatar and Morocco according to press reports, but there may be others, immediately became , as was to be expected, a reason for discrediting Parliament itself and, more generally, all the European institutions.

Far from justifying the serious omissions of vigilance by parties, non-governmental organizations and institutional structures, what has been happening since the news was released shows the willingness of these subjects to react decisively to the underworld. Came to light thanks to the investigative activity of the Belgian judiciary with the help of intelligence authorities of various countries. Too late and with a certain hypocrisy, one might say.

However, the European institutions are a precious asset, which must be defended from politically motivated manipulations and generalizations or moved by considerations inspired by the search for an audience that is as vast as the greater the media amplification of real or presumed responsibilities. The press and the media have a sacred duty to dig up and make citizens aware of all the implications of a scandal like this. But we cannot ignore ways of managing news whose effect, whether intended or not, ends up hitting the whole process of European integration. And we know how many forces inside and outside the Union are aiming at its discredit and disarticulation.

The same goes for the manipulations that can be made by subjects, interested in various capacities, to the detriment of countries or political forces from which the corrupt come, whose responsibilities must be quickly ascertained and severely sanctioned.

What implications Qatargate could have in the future in international relations?

One effect of the so-called Qatargate could be a healthy greater attention to how, in which sectors and with which modalities certain countries carry out the financing and investments which, moreover, we need. As far as Qatar is concerned, we need natural gas to replace Russian gas and to which significant exports also go, especially in the military sector, necessary, such as those to other countries, to maintain the sustainability of that crucial industrial department for our security until a new process of balanced and mutually controlled arms control and disarmament is launched between the various major players in the international community. As required by our legislation on the subject, which is not always fully observed, the aspect of human rights conditions in the recipient country should be carefully considered. And for this purpose, to avoid penalizing those who are virtuous in this field, a binding code of conduct would also be needed in Europe, in the G7 and hopefully, but the great difficulties for the different conceptions outside the West do not escape of human rights, within the framework of the G20 and the UN.

Thank you. Finally, let's move on to a particular look, that of the internal politics of the countries of the MEPs involved: how could it be influenced, also in the light of previous experiences in European history'?

The events in which some MEPs or former MEPs were protagonists immediately became the subject of debate and political exploitation within the countries from which they come. It is inevitable that this is the case. In some cases, these events join other crisis factors. It will be a matter of seeing how the political structures that will suffer attacks and loss of credibility due to the behavior of its members, with the accusation of having become structurally permeable to corruption or in any case incapable of preventing and contrasting it, will be able to manage it. In Italy, at the beginning of the 90s of the last century, the pressure of events that brought to light systemic phenomena of corruption led to the disappearance of the parties that had governed the country, accompanying its economic and social transformation from the end of the Second World War . At the moment we cannot say that we are in the presence of something similar, but much will depend on how limited the events considered will be and on what the reactions and their communication to public opinion will be.

The Week of Italian Cuisine in the World and the promotion of the Mediterranean Diet in the USA, Japan, Germany and Kazakhstan

by Dominic Letizia

From 14 to 20 November 2022, the VII edition of the Week of Italian Cuisine in the World took place all over the world. The main theme of this year's event was focused on "Conviviality, sustainability and innovation: the ingredients of Italian cuisine for people's health and the protection of the planet". A very important opportunity to be able to relaunch the role of the Mediterranean Diet, the international enhancement of agri-food traditions and practices as intangible heritage of humanity. The Municipality of Pollica has organised, together with the Future Food Institute, at the UN Headquarters in New York, a conference on the Mediterranean Diet and other missions to Kazakhstan, Berlin and Japan. In New York, led by the mayor of Pollica, Stefano Pisani, and by the president of the Future Food Institute, Sara Roversi, it was the Italian ambassador to the UN, Maurizio Massari, permanent representative to the United Nations, who highlighted how the "Mediterranean Diet it is a tangible example of a driving force for sustainable development and a model of excellence for ensuring sustainable food systems touching the various social, economic and environmental dimensions”. Following the event, the mayor of Pollica declared that “the appointment at the United Nations represents an extraordinary turning point for Cilento and for Italy as a whole. Finally we were able to represent to the international community the absolute value of the Mediterranean diet which is now to be considered a valid model of sustainable development. We were able to share with the Ambassadors to the United Nations of Italy and Morocco the next steps to be taken for the adoption of concrete actions in favor of the Mediterranean Lifestyle which I am sure will guarantee a further capitalization of the value of our Intangible Heritage". An international event, also co-sponsored by the Permanent Representation of Morocco with Mayor Mohamed Sefiani of the Emblematic Community of Chefchaouen, who has been working for years to spread the Mediterranean Diet, and which has seen a focus on the value of the high-end agrifood sector quality brought by Luigi Scordamaglia, CEO of Filiera Italia. Furthermore, further study was dedicated to the inestimable value of the Mediterranean Diet heritage and the great opportunities it represents, with a report by Pier Luigi Petrillo, full professor of Comparative Public Law and president of the Body of World Experts of the UNESCO Convention for the Safeguarding of Intangible Cultural Heritage. Subsequently there was a moment of reflection on the importance of training and of the new generations with Stephen Ritz and with the Chefs of the Culinary Institute of America, who train over 3000 chefs all over the world every year. Finally, sustainable and inclusive cities were given a voice with Benedetto Zacchiroli, president of ICCAR/UNESCO with great attention to the wealth represented by the Mediterranean and to the mayors in the Emblematic Communities and in particular to Stefano Pisani who spoke as Mayor of Pollica, representing of his community, but also as coordinator, in 2022, of the Network of 7 Emblematic Communities of the UNESCO Mediterranean Diet with a speech that clearly expressed the essential values of "Mediterranean living". The day then continued with a visit to Community School 55, where professor Stephen Ritz, one of the most popular and effective disseminators of food education, launched the Green Bronx Machine project, developing an educational program which sees in teaching make the vegetable garden the pillar of an educational model that focuses on "care" for life, health and the environment. Green Bronx Machine is now a partner of the Future Food Institute, of the Centro Studi Mediterranea Diet "Angelo Vassallo" and of Campustore with a project proposed as part of the PON Edu Green of the Regeneration plan of the Italian School which will bring the Gardens of the Mediterranean Diet to over 600 classes across the country. The Italian mission in the United States ended at "La Devozione", the restaurant of Giuseppe Di Martino, CEO and president of Pastificio Di Martino, in the historic Chelsea Market in New York with a truly unique "pasta experience". A very special dinner which involved the delegates of the mission and institutional representatives including the Deputy Permanent Representative Gianluca Greco, the delegate of the Permanent Representation of Morocco, Meriem El Hilali and also Atul Khare, the undersecretary general of the Department of Operational Support of the Nations Unite.

While the American mission made it possible to spread Italian excellence ana in the USA, in Germany, the Week of Italian Cuisine in the world, saw the cooperation between the Italian Embassy in Berlin and the Future Food Institute, in synergy with Dock3, Eni Joule and the Italian AgriFood-Tech Association, who hosted a pitch session to present the top ten Italian startups operating in the AgriTech sector and interested in the German market. The occasion allowed ten Italian startups to start relationships and networking activities with a group of German investors interested in promoting innovative and sustainable initiatives in the agri-food sector, strengthening economic and commercial cooperation between Italy and Germany. The presence of Italian companies in Berlin has allowed the agricultural and innovative realities present to be able to carry out meetings and mentoring sessions with the Berlin startup accelerators, focusing attention on the new agricultural production processes linked to innovation and sustainability.

The works of the Week of Italian Cuisine in the world have made it possible to illustrate the sustainability of the Mediterranean Diet also to university students of Kazakhstan. Numerous university students from Kazakhstan and authoritative politicians and diplomats from the Central Asian country witnessed and understood the importance of the Mediterranean Diet and the values of conviviality and sustainability that characterize this diet. The Week of Italian Cuisine in the World in Kazakhstan was the occasion for a special and authoritative guest lecture by the President of the Future Food Institute, Sara Roversi, which was held at the Agrotechnical University of Kazakhstan S. Seifullin. The conference, entitled "Sustainability and regeneration to improve food systems", was attended by about 150 people, including two scholarship holders who last September attended the boot camp on regenerative agriculture organized by the Future Food Institute at the Pollica municipality. Further initiatives with the Italian Ambassador to the country, Marco Alberti, were held at the Nazarbayev University of Astana with a talk dedicated to the issues of sustainability, nutrition and the values of the Mediterranean Diet. According to the Memorandum of Cooperation entered into with the University of Kazakhstan, students will have further opportunities to complete a two-week Summer School, following the work of the Future Food Institute in Italy, in the city of Pollica. Thanks to the boot camp, Kazakhstan students can assimilate and disseminate the potential of the Mediterranean Diet abroad, increasing their skills as social decision-makers and young activists with multidisciplinary profiles, through specific skills to co-design tangible strategies and innovations that accelerate the action on climate, facilitating the transition of society towards the framework of sustainable development. Built on an experiential learning platform that includes masterclasses, local missions, mentorship sessions, virtual “climate dinners” and Hackathons, the innovative educational program celebrates the protagonists of local agriculture and food, equipping participants with the knowledge and skills to lead sustainable food system actions in their communities.

The seventh edition of the Week of Italian Cuisine in the world was also celebrated in Japan, focusing on the Italian culinary tradition, conviviality, quality Italian products and the richness of the culinary identities of the two countries. Thanks to a program initiated by Professor Enrico Traversa, scientific director of the Italian Embassy in Tokyo and by Alessandro Fusco, Director of Future Food Japan, an educational and informative event was held to compare the cultural and anthropological history of the Diet Mediterranean with the Japanese food style, highlighting the common models to combat food waste and protect the territory. The importance of a sustainable and conscious diet and the use of fermentation to combat food waste and improve our diets is what was described to the assembled public, which saw the presence of numerous journalists, with well-curated reports and insights by Paco Álvarez Ron, R&D Lead of the Food Alchemist Lab of the Future Food Institute, by Hiraku Ogura, well-known Japanese Fermentation Designer and by Masayoshi Ishida, professor at the Ritsumeikan University College of Gastronomy Management. Salvatore Cuomo, Founder and Chairman of Salvatore Cuomo International and part of the "I LOVE ITALIAN FOOD" network shared his commitment, and the "LAB3680" project, in supporting local farmers, contributing to community development, creating sustainable food products and promoting Italian food in the Hita region. The event, organized by the Future Food Institute coordinated by the Italian Embassy in Tokyo, presented and disseminated the new connections and interpretations that put Italy in synergy with Japan. Synergies aimed at intensifying cultural research on the identity of food, healthy eating behaviors that can be spread in both geographical realities, attitudes, social choices related to food and the continuous search for quality ingredients. On the other hand, Italy and Japan both share complex food histories, but also characterized by new and fascinating opportunities for innovative connections and developments.

HOW DELICATE IS THE WESTERN GARDEN? Luca Mozzi

According to the UN, on 15 November humanity reached an epochal milestone: the world population reached the figure of eight billion people. News of great impact, but difficult to interpret; it seems difficult to say whether it is a Malthusian catastrophe or an asset for our planet. Despite the relevance of the information, the demographic data has very little impact on our daily life; perhaps some will find the aesthetic symmetry of the number eight more fascinating, compared to the decomposed outline of the number seven, but the discussion stops on these frivolities: the human brain remains incapable of contemplating such a large number of individuals.

Not only does this news have little impact on the community, but, based on our vision of reality, inevitably narrowed by our territorial (hence mental) anchorage, an increase in population appears almost in contradiction with our daily perception. If we have been accustomed for over two centuries to think of population growth as a natural complement to the advance of history, in recent decades, in our societies, we have in fact seen the paradigm reverse: due to widespread well-being, work stress and other already well-known reasons, there are fewer and fewer children being born. If the birth rate is growing dramatically in developing countries, in our latitudes coffins have begun to equal cradles in number. Or even surpass them. A dismal reality, which is masterfully revealed in the case of Italy, a country which, in 2019 alone (the last year before Covid), lost more than 200,000 individuals, continuing the demographic decline started in 2014. Not an anomalous trend in Europe and in the Western world itself, which finds itself, like Italy, facing a harsh demographic winter. In the EU alone, 8 countries are experiencing depopulation, while the other 19 are saved; partly also thanks to immigration, a harbinger of a proliferating and young population, which lowers the median age of the nation, an essential tool of demographic data. On the other side of the Atlantic, the USA, for example, are among the main users of this phenomenon and are therefore able to assimilate hundreds of thousands of immigrants from all over the world every year.

The fertility rate in the world: if the value 2 indicates a situation of demographic static, every country that is below this number is in depopulation. (source: commons.wikimedia.org)

Analyzing the demographic datum qualitatively as well as quantitatively, it is evident how out of the eight billion current population, only one corresponds to the Western World (ideally made up of Western Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand, Japan), while the remaining 7 billion belong to regions once called 'Third World', such as India, Pakistan, Sub-Saharan Africa, South-East Asia or China. And this trend appears to be growing: the demographic gap that separates Western societies from the rest of the world is ever wider.

If even in the centuries of colonial conquests it was a small minority of 'whites' who imposed themselves on a decidedly greater number of Africans or Asians, today these countries appear less and less inclined to look to the West, being concentrated instead on their history, culture and rediscovering a national mythology with which to identify. The Western-style democratic-liberal ideology is not felt to belong to it and in many cases it is perceived as antagonistic, almost as a reference to colonialism, which attempted to impose Western values in areas of the world with little interest in receiving them.

Proof of this change of balance was the reaction of the 'non-Western' world to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Although the latter was a despicable action, carried out to the detriment of international law and human rights themselves, it seems that it has left several developing states indifferent. Many Asian, South American and particularly African nations did not condemn Russia's actions during a UN vote last March, nor did they approve of the various sanctions packages aimed at the latter. On 3 June 2022, during an international forum in Slovakia, the Indian economy minister said: ''Europe must abandon that mental perspective according to which Europe's problems are the world's problems, while the world's problems are not they are European problems''. The concept is clear: ''European solutions to European problems'', as a journalist wrote Kenyan shortly after the Russian aggression. The latter seems to be more and more the common opinion of the former third world countries, which, it should not be forgotten, are also among the main victims of this war, as they are largely dependent on Russian and Ukrainian agricultural products or fertilizers.

 Presentation of the book Lettere sul Mondo by the Circolo di Studi Diplomatici of Rome, Sunday 11 December at 5 pm, at the Più libri più liberi fair, Rome Eur, Venetian Editors Association pavilion / Veneto Region, Present the co-Presidents of the circle, Ambassadors Paolo Casardi and Maurizio Melani with the publisher Carlo Mazzanti, they discussed the most recent events in international politics, the next edition of the International Festival of European Geopolitics, which will be held in May 2023 in Venice, promoted by Atlantis magazine and with a leading role of the club and the imminent start (December 20, 2022) of geopolitical training courses for Veneto high schools, the first step for a national information and training project.

Lettere sul Mondo (Letters about the world).

The international reality, relations between states, the action of multilateral institutions, the activities of NGOs and large multinationals, are becoming increasingly complex and difficult to decipher. In a globalized world, constantly changing between decadence of ideologies and resurgence of political and religious extremisms, the new transactional threats make fun of state borders. In order to navigate the tortuous paths of international politics, the activity of the Circolo di Studi Diplomatici, established in 1968, proves to be truly invaluable, where the Ambassadors of Italy no longer in service meet regularly to exchange impressions and assessments on the major international problems actuality. Impressions and evaluations that they then pour into the "Diplomatic Letters". This volume of the GLOBAL OBSERVATORY series by Mazzanti Libri collects the Letters of the last months of 2021 and a large part of the year 2022. A vision therefore of the international reality offered by those who have acquired an irreplaceable experience in international relations, having worked on the international scene personally and having accumulated formidable expertise over many years of diplomatic career.